The electric vehicle transition is going to require a lot of mining and materials — but possibly a lot less than everyone thinks, a new report argues.
I hear the same refrain from climate advocates and fossil-fuel boosters: Whether you like electric vehicles or not, mining all the minerals needed for those batteries is going to be a problem. People worry that we’ll run out of lithium, or skyrocketing demand will push prices through the roof, or the battery boom will fuel environmental devastation and human suffering around the world.
An intriguing new report from climate think tank RMI suggests that many of those concerns are overblown, and that the materials EVs rely on are in fact an asset — not a hindrance.
“One of the biggest things people hold against EVs might turn out to be one of its biggest benefits in the long run,” said report coauthor Daan Walter, a principal on RMI’s strategy team. “Battery minerals have a tremendous benefit over oil, and that’s that you can reuse them.”
Transportation generates more planet-warming emissions than any other sector in the U.S. economy, and electrification offers a clear path to cleaning it up (one that can complement visions of more walkable, transit-friendly development). Battery-based vehicles already have demonstrated rapid uptake with consumers, rising from paltry sales a decade ago to an expected 20 percent of new car sales globally this year.
But the report’s authors found there’s evidence to suggest that battery chemistry innovations, energy density improvements, and recycling have already helped limit demand for battery minerals in spite of this rapid growth — and that further improvements can reduce it even more. And, contrary to some fears, the world has more than enough minerals to meet projected EV needs.
If countries continue to build out battery-recycling infrastructure alongside the growth of EV production, global demand for new lithium mining could peak as soon as 2038, with nickel and cobalt peaking even sooner, the report says. Its authors, including climate futurist Kingsmill Bond, envision a scenario in which new mining for battery materials can basically stop by 2050, as battery recycling meets demand.