In this Sustainable Energy Seminar, Christopher Zahasky, Assistant Professor of Geoscience, will discuss the connections between resource assessments of geologic storage of carbon dioxide and projections of technologies needed to meet global climate targets.
Integrated assessment models have identified carbon capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for limiting climate change. To achieve 2 degree climate targets, many scenarios require tens of gigatons of carbon dioxide stored per year by mid-century. These scenarios are often unconstrained by growth rates, and uncertainty in global geologic storage assessments limits resource-based constraints. In this seminar I will first give some background on CCS storage technology and how it fits into these integrated assessment models. I will then present some of our recent work using logistic growth models, a common tool in resource assessment, to provide a mathematical framework for stakeholders to monitor short-term CCS deployment progress and long-term resource requirements in the context of climate change mitigation targets. Growth rate analysis, constrained by historic commercial CO2 storage rates, indicates sufficient growth to achieve several of the 2100 storage targets identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A maximum global discovered storage capacity of approximately 2700 Gt is needed to meet the most aggressive targets. Results also highlight how delayed action ultimately requires a larger CO2 storage volume and technology deployment at higher rates to achieve these IPCC climate targets.
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